About 600 forecasters gone, weather balloons grounded, the billion-dollar disaster database stopped, and a Texas office with six vacancies the night of the flood: what the record shows about the Weather Service

What happened

The National Weather Service lost roughly 600 positions from a workforce of about 4,200, about 15 percent, through layoffs, buyouts and retirements by spring 2025, according to Tom Fahy, legislative director of the NWS Employees Organization, the union that represents forecasters [1]. A year later the picture was the same in federal payroll data: CBS News found NOAA had nearly 300 fewer meteorologists and hydrologists at the end of May 2026 than in January 2025, and reported that most of the 600 who left were experienced workers who took early retirement, while about 100 first-year probationary employees were fired [4].

The losses showed up in the data that feeds forecast models. Weather balloons are supposed to launch twice a day from sites across the country; by the 2025 hurricane season almost a dozen offices had suspended or limited launches, and two remote Alaska sites had not launched a balloon since February and August 2025 respectively, according to CBS News [4]. The agency says the reduced launches are "due to temporary resource and equipment constraints" [4].

Separately, NOAA formally stopped updating its Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters database in May 2025, the record the insurance industry and the National Climate Assessment used to track storms, droughts and fires that caused at least $1 billion in damage; the climatologist who ran it for more than a decade, Adam Smith, said he left NOAA in April "after facing pressure to stop work on the database," and a nonprofit, Climate Central, hired him to rebuild it [5]. The database had counted a record 28 billion-dollar disasters in 2023 and 27 in 2024 [5].

On the night of July 3 to 4, 2025, when the Guadalupe River rose 22 feet in two hours at Hunt, Texas, the Weather Service's Austin/San Antonio office was carrying six vacancies out of 26 positions, and the San Angelo office four of 23, by the union's count [3]. Rep. Lloyd Doggett's July 8 letter to NOAA lists the Austin/San Antonio vacancies as a 22 percent rate that included "a hydrologist who performs flood projects, two meteorologists -- including the Warning and Coordination Meteorologist, and a science officer"; the warning coordination meteorologist, the person whose job is to work with local emergency managers on when and how to warn, had taken early retirement in April 2025 [2]. The Texas Tribune reported he had announced the early retirement as a result of the funding cuts [3].

The warnings themselves went out: a flood watch at 1:18 p.m. on July 3, a flash flood warning at 11:41 p.m., a second warning at 1:14 a.m. on July 4 and a flash flood emergency at 4:03 a.m. [1][3]. The union said staffing was adequate to issue those warnings on time, and Alan Gerard, a former NOAA severe-storms official, wrote that there was "little evidence that any of the recent cuts to NOAA/NWS negatively impacted services for this event" [1]. This story reports the vacancies and the timeline together because both are on the record; it does not say the vacancies caused the deaths, because no source on the record says so.

Congress, with Republican majorities in both chambers, refused the administration's proposed NOAA cut. The negotiated fiscal 2026 Commerce, Justice, Science bill filed January 5, 2026 provides $6.171 billion for NOAA, $1.67 billion above the request, including $1.46 billion for the Weather Service with a $10 million increase for forecast-office staffing, and $224 million for climate research the administration had proposed to largely eliminate [6]. In August 2025 the President had already granted the Weather Service an emergency authorization to hire 450 meteorologists, hydrologists and radar technicians over a year; more than 300 had been onboarded by late June 2026, the agency told CBS News [4].

Why it matters

Weather is the one science every voter uses every day. The record here is not a claim that a forecast failed; it is a count of the forecasters, the balloons and the data that were there before and were not there after, assembled from the union, federal payroll data, a member of Congress's letter and the agency's own statements [1][2][4]. The cut was made by the executive branch and reversed in part by a Republican Congress and an emergency hiring order, which means both the loss and the repair are measurable, and a reader can ask whether the second was worth the first [4][6].

The evidence

• FactCheck.org, July 10, 2025: about 600 of roughly 4,200 NWS staff gone by spring 2025 by layoffs, buyouts and retirements, per the NWS Employees Organization; the administration did not "defund" the Weather Service and proposed a 7.6 percent NWS increase while proposing deep NOAA cuts; the warning timeline; Trump's "No, they didn't" [1].
• Rep. Doggett's letter of July 8, 2025: six vacant roles (22 percent) in Austin/San Antonio including the warning coordination meteorologist, science officer and a hydrologist; 17 percent at San Angelo; the April 2025 early retirement [2].
• Texas Tribune, July 5, 2025: the gauge data, the warning sequence, the union's vacancy counts and the Weather Service's "We had adequate staffing" [3].
• CBS News, July 20, 2026: nearly 300 fewer NOAA meteorologists and hydrologists than in January 2025; almost a dozen offices with suspended or limited balloon launches; two Alaska sites idle since 2025; 450-position emergency hiring authority and more than 300 onboarded [4].
• Insurance Journal and Bloomberg, August 6, 2025: the Billion-Dollar Disasters database stopped in May 2025; its lead scientist's account of pressure to stop; the 2023 and 2024 counts [5].
• Sen. Van Hollen's statement on the negotiated bill, January 5, 2026: $6.171 billion for NOAA, $1.67 billion above the request; $1.46 billion for NWS; $224 million for climate research [6].

Response and counterpoints

The administration's position is that the Weather Service was not defunded and that the Texas warnings prove it remained "fully capable of carrying out its critical mission"; the fiscal 2026 request in fact proposed a 7.6 percent increase for the Weather Service line even as it proposed large cuts elsewhere in NOAA [1]. The Weather Service's own hydrologist on duty in the region said staffing and technology were adequate that night, and the union agreed the warnings were timely [3][1]. On the balloons, the agency's statement is that the constraints are temporary and that hiring is under way, with more than 300 new field staff by late June 2026 and another 150 entry-level meteorologists being recruited [4]. The union's Tom Fahy told CBS News in July 2026 that "those gloomy days of 2025 are far away in the rear-view mirror" even as some offices remained understaffed [4].

What remains uncertain

The 600 figure is the union's, not agency payroll, and FactCheck.org reports it as such; the CBS payroll analysis covers all of NOAA, not the Weather Service alone, so the two counts measure different things and are not combined here [1][4]. Whether the Austin/San Antonio vacancies changed anything about the warnings or the local response on July 4, 2025 is not established: Rep. Doggett's letter asks NOAA when a hydrologist was in the office and who performed the warning coordination duties, and no after-action review answering those questions appears in the sources opened for this story [2]. The forecasters' union and an independent former NOAA official both say the warnings were timely, and this story does not attribute the deaths to the staffing cuts [1][3]. The CBS News page carries only a July 20, 2026 update stamp, so the original publication date is taken from it [4]. The appropriations figures are from a senator's statement on the negotiated text, not the enacted law's tables; the committee's own summary PDF could not be opened for this story [6].

Money and method

Staffing counts are reported with their source and kept separate: the union's 600 of 4,200 for the Weather Service, the federal payroll figure of nearly 300 fewer meteorologists and hydrologists across NOAA, and the office-level vacancy counts from the union and Rep. Doggett's letter [1][2][3][4]. The flood timeline uses the times given by FactCheck.org's compilation and the Texas Tribune's interviews with Weather Service staff [1][3]. Appropriations dollars are the negotiated fiscal 2026 bill's amounts as stated by the subcommittee's ranking member on the day the text was filed, with the request comparison as he stated it [6]. No causal claim about the Texas deaths is made or implied.

Sources cited

1. [1]
   Staffing Cuts at NWS and the Tragic Flooding in Texas — FactCheck.org, 2025-07-10.

   supports · Answer paragraph: 'did reduce the staff by 600 people'; 'did cut "roughly 600" positions in the NWS workforce, which had about 4,200 people, through layoffs, buyouts and retirements by the spring, Tom Fahy, legislative director for the NWS Employees Organization'; Fahy to NBC: offices 'had adequate staffing and resources as they issued timely forecasts and warnings'; Trump, July 6: 'No, they didn't'; Commerce spokesperson: 'remains fully capable of carrying out its critical mission'; timeline: flood watch 1:18 p.m. July 3, flash flood warning 11:41 p.m., second warning 1:14 a.m. July 4; Alan Gerard: 'little evidence that any of the recent cuts to NOAA/NWS negatively impacted services for this event' · checked 2026-10-27 · source N-nws-01
2. [2]
   Letter from Rep. Lloyd Doggett to NOAA on National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio staffing — Office of Rep. Lloyd Doggett, U.S. House of Representatives, 2025-07-08.

   supports · Page 1: 'the NWS Austin/San Antonio office has a 22% vacancy rate with six vacant roles, including a hydrologist who performs flood projects, two meteorologists -- including the Warning and Coordination Meteorologist, and a science officer'; San Angelo 'missing a senior hydrologist, staff forecaster, and meteorologist-in-charge, operating with a 17% vacancy rate'; 'Since the early retirement in April 2025 of the Warning and Coordination Meteorologist'; questions 4 and 10 on who assumed those duties · checked 2026-10-27 · source N-nws-02
3. [3]
   In Texas region prone to catastrophic floods, questions grow about lack of warning — The Texas Tribune, 2025-07-05.

   supports · Paragraphs on the warning sequence: flood watch 1:18 p.m. Thursday; first flash flood warning 1:14 a.m. Friday; flash flood emergency 4:03 a.m.; Guadalupe gauge at Hunt 22-foot rise in two hours; Greg Waller: 'We had adequate staffing. We had adequate technology'; union staffing data: San Angelo four vacancies of 23, San Antonio six of 26; warning coordination meteorologist 'announced in April that he was retiring early due to the funding cuts' · checked 2026-10-27 · source N-nws-03
4. [4]
   National Weather Service faces hurricane season with less experienced staff, missing data — CBS News, 2026-07-20.

   supports · Updated July 20, 2026: 'losing about 15% of its staff'; 'shrunk the weather service by about 600 employees, most of them experienced workers who accepted early retirement packages'; 'About 100 probationary employees ... were fired'; 'nearly 300 fewer meteorologists and hydrologists ... at the end of May, compared with January 2025'; 'almost a dozen suspended or limited weather balloon launches'; 'two remote weather service outposts in Alaska have not launched weather balloons since February and August of last year'; emergency authorization 'last August' to hire 450; 'More than 300 new weather service employees were onboarded as of late June'; Cei: 'due to temporary resource and equipment constraints' · checked 2026-10-27 · source N-nws-04
5. [5]
   Researchers Are Resurrecting Billion-Dollar Disaster Tool Trump Shut Down — Insurance Journal (Bloomberg), 2025-08-06.

   supports · Paragraphs 1 to 4: database 'the Trump administration formally stopped updating in May'; Adam Smith 'left NOAA voluntarily in April after facing pressure to stop work on the database'; Climate Central to revive it; 'record 28 billion-dollar disasters' in 2023 and 27 in 2024; Frank Nutter of the Reinsurance Association of America on the loss · checked 2026-10-27 · source N-nws-05
6. [6]
   Van Hollen Statement on House and Senate Negotiated Commerce, Justice, Science, and Related Agencies FY 2026 Appropriations Bill — Office of Sen. Chris Van Hollen, U.S. Senate, 2026-01-05.

   supports · Statement dated 01.05.2026 on the negotiated FY2026 CJS bill: 'The bill provides $6.171 billion for NOAA, $1.67 billion above President Trump's request'; '$1.46 billion for the National Weather Service ... including a $10 million increase to bolster staffing at Weather Forecast Offices'; '$224 million for climate research at NOAA, rejecting President Trump's push to eliminate much of this funding' · checked 2026-10-27 · source N-nws-06