Operation Epic Fury: a war of choice launched days before a deal, still unfinished eight months and $43.6 billion later

People and organizations

Donald Trump, JD Vance, Pete Hegseth, Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff, US military (Department of Defense), Government of Iran, United States Congress, Congressional Research Service, Trump administration

Places

United States, Iran, Israel, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan

Evidence label

Reporting — Original reporting by an identified news organization that we opened and dated. Investigative findings are attributed to the outlet, not asserted as adjudicated fact. More

What happened

At the end of February 2026 the United States was negotiating with Iran. Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva on February 26 for a third round; on February 27, Oman's foreign minister met Vice President Vance in Washington, said a deal was "within reach," and announced technical talks in Vienna for the following Monday. Iran had offered to stop accumulating fissile material and give up its stockpile of 60 percent enriched uranium [9][8]. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury: nearly 900 strikes in the first 12 hours, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of officials [2]. A US Tomahawk hit a girls' school in Minab, killing more than 150 people, mostly children, according to a preliminary US military investigation [1][2]. Trump urged Iranians to take over their government; there was no UN authorization and Congress was not consulted [9].

What followed was not short. Iran retaliated against US bases, embassies and Gulf energy sites and attacked shipping; commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world's oil, fell by more than 90 percent [2]. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on April 7-8 led to failed talks in Islamabad and a US naval blockade [2]. On June 17 Trump and Iran's president signed the 14-point "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding," which ended operations, lifted the blockade, promised a $300 billion reconstruction plan and sanctions relief, and deferred the hard questions, Iran's nuclear program and control of Hormuz, to a final deal within 60 days [5][6][7]. Within three weeks the two sides were disputing what the Hormuz clause meant; the IRGC struck three ships on July 6-7, Iran hit US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, and on July 8 Trump declared the agreement "over" [2][12]. US forces hit about 140 targets with more than 300 strikes in the following week, then bridges and ports [2][7]. The memorandum formally expired in August. As of late October 2026 the two sides were still exchanging strikes, seven tankers had been damaged around Hormuz in a week, and Vance was demanding enrichment cuts as the price of ending a "seven-month war" [1][8][11].

Why it matters

It did not achieve its stated goals. Trump told the country on April 1 that the war was "nearing completion," but a US official told NPR that only about one-third of Iran's missile capability had been confirmed destroyed; CRS later reported Iran retained up to 75 percent of its mobile launchers [10][1]. The nuclear question is worse than before: Iran held an estimated 440.9 kg of 60 percent uranium before the 2025 strikes, enough for about ten weapons if further enriched; it has never told the IAEA how much survived or where it is, inspectors have not been readmitted, the Isfahan tunnel plant appears largely unscathed, and the number and location of Iran's centrifuges have been unknown since Trump withdrew from the 2015 deal [11]. Trump's own answer was that he was not concerned because the uranium was "far underground," and that a future president might have to strike again [10]. Satellite imagery shows rebuilding at Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain [7].

It cost lives and money that were not budgeted. CENTCOM put the cost at $43.6 billion as of September 3, up $6 billion in a month, with CBO projecting about $3 billion more per month; the administration asked Congress for a $95 billion supplemental and a $1.5 trillion defense budget [3]. Twenty-one US service members are dead and 865 wounded by the Pentagon's October count, which the Washington Post reported was still an undercount [4]. Iranian deaths were 3,636 by April 7, including 1,701 civilians [1]. The United States burned through roughly a third of its Tomahawks, a quarter of its JASSMs and more than half its Patriot and THAAD interceptors, leaving a "beyond critical" interceptor shortage in Europe while Ukraine was being told Patriots were scarce [1][3]. Iranian strikes damaged or destroyed hundreds of structures at US bases in eight countries [3].

It did what the warnings said it would. Iran closed Hormuz. Brent rose from $72.48 the day before the war to a peak of $126.41 on April 30 and was still $114.47 on October 23; US gasoline passed $4 a gallon within five weeks [8][10]. Those costs are documented in a companion story, as are the decades of analysis predicting exactly this.

It was launched without Congress. The House passed three resolutions directing the removal of US forces from hostilities with Iran, and the Senate passed one; none became law [1]. That record is in a companion story on the war-powers fight.

The evidence

• The CRS report to Congress, the most complete official account [1].
• Britannica's dated chronology of strikes, ceasefires and the MoU [2].
• The AP on costs and the Washington Examiner on casualties [3][4].
• The text of the Islamabad MoU as reported by Reuters [5][6].
• Lawfare's analysis of the collapse of the truce [7].
• Al Jazeera's eight-month ledger of economic and political costs [8].
• Le Monde's February 28 report on the state of negotiations when the war began [9].
• NPR's account of the April 1 address with official pushback on its claims [10].
• Reuters on the status of Iran's enriched uranium and the July 8 collapse [11][12].

Response and counterpoints

The administration's case is that Iran was approaching a nuclear weapon, had thousands of missiles aimed at US bases, and had negotiated in bad faith; that the strikes destroyed 92 percent of Iran's large naval ships and decapitated its leadership; that a less radical leadership emerged; and that the Islamabad MoU showed Iran could be brought to terms [10][2][5]. Trump compared 32 days of operations favorably with the years spent in Iraq [10]. NATO's secretary general called the July strikes necessary after Iran's attacks on shipping [12]. Iran's own conduct, including attacks on tankers and the IRGC's refusal to allow neutral administration of the strait, is part of why the truce failed [7][12].

What remains uncertain

How much enriched uranium survived, and where, is unknown to the IAEA [11]. US casualty figures have been revised repeatedly and may still be incomplete [4]. Iranian casualty totals after April 7 are not in the cited sources [1]. Whether the pre-war Omani-brokered offer would have produced a verifiable agreement cannot be known; Le Monde's account rests on Oman's foreign minister and the Wall Street Journal's description of US demands [9]. Whether the current strikes-and-talks pattern ends in a deal is open [7][8].

Money and method

Cost figures: $38 billion through August 1 (CBO) and $43.6 billion through September 3 (CENTCOM), excluding base damage [3]. Casualties: 18 dead and 824 wounded as of September 15 (CRS); 21 dead and 865 wounded as of October 11 (Pentagon), with press reports of at least 22-23 [1][4]. Oil prices are Brent benchmarks as reported by Al Jazeera [8]. The $300 billion reconstruction figure is from the MoU text, not a disbursement [5].

Sources cited

1. [1]
   U.S. Conflict with Iran (R48887) — Congressional Research Service, 2026-09-18.

   supports · Summary (strikes began Feb. 28, 2026; April ceasefire and June MoU collapsed; MoU expired in August; CBO: $38 billion as of Aug. 1; munitions shortfalls); 'By the Numbers' (18 US deaths and 824 wounded as of Sept. 15; 3,636 Iranian deaths as of April 7 including 1,701 civilians); 'Impacts on capabilities' (Iran retained up to 75% of mobile launchers; US used about one-third of Tomahawks, one-quarter of JASSMs, more than half of Patriot and THAAD interceptors); 'Issues for Congress' ($64 billion in arms sales, $25.3 billion emergency; three House and one Senate resolutions; Minab school strike killed over 150, mostly children) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-01
2. [2]
   2026 Iran war — Encyclopaedia Britannica, 2026-10-23.

   supports · 'Conflict' (nearly 900 strikes in first 12 hours; Ali Khamenei killed; girls' school near Bandar Abbas, about 170 killed; Mojtaba Khamenei appointed); 'Global economic impact' (Hormuz traffic fell more than 90%; oil from ~$70 to $103 average in March); 'Ceasefire' (April 7-8 two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan; Islamabad talks failed; US blockade began); 'Memorandum of understanding' (signed June 17; parties disagreed on Hormuz provisions); 'Continued fighting' (IRGC struck three ships July 6-7; Trump declared truce over July 7; 300+ US strikes on 140 targets) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-02
3. [3]
   Iran war's cost grows to $43.6 billion in new US military estimate — Associated Press, 2026-09-18.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-3 (CENTCOM: $43.6 billion as of Sept. 3; CBO: $38 billion through Aug. 1 and ~$3 billion a month; weapons $28.1 billion); paragraphs 5-12 ($1.5 trillion budget request and $95 billion package; 18 dead and 830+ wounded; base damage in eight countries excluded; 'beyond critical' interceptor shortage in Europe) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-03
4. [4]
   Pentagon revises US military death toll in Iran war up to 21 — Washington Examiner, 2026-10-11.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-10 (Pentagon revises death toll to 21 on Oct. 11, 2026; 865 wounded; Washington Post reported undercounting, officials cite at least 22-23; Epic Fury declared over in May and war reclassified as an 'overseas operation' in July; four deaths removed then restored) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-04
5. [5]
   The 14-point US-Iran pact White House sent to Congress — Reuters, 2026-06-17.

   supports · Body paragraphs 1-2 and points 1-14 (14-point Islamabad MoU sent to Congress June 18; immediate permanent end to operations including Lebanon; blockade ended within 30 days; Iran's 'best efforts' for 60 days of safe passage; $300 billion reconstruction plan; sanctions terminated in a final deal; Iran reaffirms no nuclear weapons; enriched stockpile disposition deferred; oil waivers immediately) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-05
6. [6]
   White House sends text of interim US-Iran agreement to US Congress — Reuters, 2026-06-18.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-6 (document titled 'Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding'; signed June 17 with Pakistan as witness; final deal to be negotiated within 60 days) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-06
7. [7]
   Fighting While Talking: The Iran War Enters Its Bargaining Phase — Lawfare, 2026-08-18.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-6 and 'The Ceasefire That Never Was' (MoU left nuclear program and Hormuz control unresolved; transits 49 on July 7, then 13, versus ~110 prewar; US hit ~90 coastal sites in one night then bridges and ports; Oman two-lane workaround in August); 'The Ledger' (depleted US munitions; Iran rebuilding at Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain); 'Allied Spoilers' (Israeli operations in Lebanon undercut talks) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-07
8. [8]
   US-Iran war, then and now: How the landscape has changed since February — Al Jazeera, 2026-10-23.

   supports · Opening (nuclear talks were underway before the strikes; seven tankers damaged in October); 'Political stakes' (Reuters/Ipsos: Trump approval 31%, down from 40% before the war); 'Economic balance' (Iran estimates $270 billion damage; CBO $38 billion; US debt passed $40 trillion in August); 'Global trade' (Brent from $72.48 on Feb. 27 to a $126.41 peak on April 30, $114.47 on Oct. 23; IEA warns LNG constraints into 2027) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-08
9. [9]
   Trump gives in to the temptation of regime change in Iran with Operation Epic Fury — Le Monde, 2026-02-28.

   supports · Paragraphs 3-6 (Epic Fury launched Feb. 28 to eliminate 'imminent threats'; Trump urged Iranians to take over the government; no UN authorization and no consultation with Congress); paragraphs 12-14 (Oman's foreign minister said Feb. 27 a deal was 'within reach'; Vienna technical talks scheduled for Monday; Iran offered to stop accumulating fissile material and relinquish 60% stockpile); paragraphs 20-24 (Witkoff and Kushner met Araghchi in Geneva Feb. 26; 408 kg of 60% uranium); 'Pentagon warnings' (Caine could not guarantee a clean operation without US casualties) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-09
10. [10]
    Trump makes his case for war with Iran, saying the conflict is 'nearing completion' — NPR via MPR News, 2026-04-02.

    supports · Paragraphs 1-2 and 5-8 (April 1 address: war 'nearing completion'; objectives listed; US official: only about one-third of missile capability confirmed eliminated; 92% of large naval ships destroyed); paragraphs 11-17 (Trump says nuclear goal attained but a future president may have to strike again; not concerned about stockpile 'far underground'; says he did not seek regime change but it occurred); paragraphs 21-26 (gasoline above $4; majority disapprove; 13 US deaths by then) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-10
11. [11]
    What is the status of Iran's uranium enrichment programme? — Reuters, 2026-10-07.

    supports · Paragraphs 1-15 (Oct. 7, 2026: Vance says Iran must cut enrichment capacity to end the seven-month war; IAEA estimated 440.9 kg of 60% uranium before the 2025 strikes, enough for about 10 weapons if further enriched; Iran has not said how much survived or where it is and has not readmitted inspectors; Isfahan tunnel plant largely unscathed; Grossi: a bit more than 200 kg remained in Isfahan tunnels; centrifuge numbers and locations unknown since the 2018 withdrawal) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-11
12. [12]
    Trump says Iran ceasefire 'is over' — Reuters via The Daily Star, 2026-07-08.

    supports · Paragraphs 1-3 and 7-12 (July 8, 2026: Trump declares the interim agreement 'over' after Iranian attacks on US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait; tankers turn back; Brent up 5% to $78; CENTCOM strikes 60+ IRGC small boats; oil license revoked) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-iran-12