Tariffs on allies for defending Denmark: how the Greenland crisis and the trade war broke Europe's trust in America

People and organizations

Donald Trump, European Union, NATO, Marco Rubio, Trump administration

Places

United States, Europe, Denmark, Greenland, Germany

Evidence label

Reporting — Original reporting by an identified news organization that we opened and dated. Investigative findings are attributed to the outlet, not asserted as adjudicated fact. More

What happened

The trade war first. In spring 2025 the administration began using tariff threats against the EU, and in July 2025 at Turnberry, Scotland, the two sides reached a political agreement, not legally binding, that set a 15 percent blanket tariff on nearly all EU exports to the United States while the EU agreed to eliminate its own duties on US industrial goods [9][8]. The US kept its 50 percent tariff on steel [9]. European leaders called the deal unbalanced; the EU's promised purchases and investments were described by a senior US official as "intended and expected," not guaranteed [8].

Then Greenland. On January 5, 2026, two days after US forces seized Venezuela's president, Trump repeated that the United States "needs" Greenland and a White House aide posted a map of the island in American-flag colors captioned "SOON" [2]. Denmark's prime minister said the US had no right to annex any part of the Danish kingdom; Greenland's prime minister called US control a "fantasy" [2]. Trump had previously refused to rule out force, and the Venezuela operation revived the fear that he might use it [2]. On January 20 he announced a 10 percent tariff, starting in February, on goods from eight European countries that had supported Denmark [1]. European Commission President von der Leyen called it a mistake that called his trustworthiness into question; Macron warned the EU might use its anti-coercion instrument against the United States for the first time; Canada's Mark Carney said the world was experiencing "a rupture rather than a transition" [1].

Markets, not allies, ended it. Wall Street had its biggest losses since October as Trump flew to Davos. There, on January 21, he ruled out military force and dropped the tariffs, citing a "framework" with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte; the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq each rose 1.2 percent within hours [3]. The AP's headline: the stock market "cuts through to Trump" in a way allies' messages had not [3].

The deal. On September 18, 2026, Trump announced an agreement with Denmark and Greenland that he said gave the US "permanent control" over Greenland's security; Greenland remains Danish, the official text had not been released, and it was unclear how it differed from the 1951 defense treaty that already let the US station forces and build bases [4][5]. The US has about 160 troops at one base in Greenland; the agreement allows two more [5].

Why it matters

The cost shows up in the polling. Pew's 2026 survey of 42,151 adults in 36 countries found majorities lacking confidence in Trump in all ten European nations surveyed, three-quarters or more in eight; a median of 85 percent disapproved of his handling of Greenland and tariffs; and only Hungary and Poland still had majorities calling the United States a reliable partner, with drops of 28 to 52 points elsewhere [6]. In Germany, the ARD-DeutschlandTrend of January 5-7, 2026 found 76 percent of voters saying the US is not a trustworthy partner and 15 percent saying it is, the lowest reading ever recorded; 70 percent said NATO partners could not rely on US protection and 53 percent wanted a European military alliance more independent of NATO [7]. Pew noted current views resemble those of the early and mid-2000s, during the Iraq war [6].

A Greenlandic civic leader put the point simply after the September deal: the right to self-determination was recognized, but "the threats damaged trust" [5].

The evidence

• The Turnberry framework and its terms [9][8].
• The January 2026 escalation, the eight-country tariff and the European response [2][1].
• The Davos reversal and the market reaction [3].
• The September 2026 agreement and what is and is not known about it [4][5].
• Pew and ARD polling with sample sizes and field dates [6][7].

Response and counterpoints

The administration argues the Greenland agreement delivered permanent US basing and a veto on adversary presence at no cost, and that Russia's and China's Arctic activity made it necessary [4]. Denmark's and Greenland's prime ministers both welcomed the final agreement as recognizing sovereignty and self-determination, and NATO said it would advance regional security [4][5]. Some analysts argued the annexation threat may have been a bluff and that the damage was repairable [3]. On trade, the EU's own commissioner called the 2025 deal the most favorable the US had offered anyone [8].

What remains uncertain

The full text of the Greenland agreement had not been published when this story was written, and it still required parliamentary procedures [4]. Who pays for expanded US military activity in Greenland is unclear [5]. Reports that a Trump-linked company brought drilling equipment to Greenland's east coast without permission come from one interview and Greenland's government statement, and have not been independently confirmed here [5].

Money and method

Pew figures are medians across ten European countries; the German figures are from a single national poll of 1,323 voters with a 2 to 3 point margin of error [6][7]. The EU-US trade relationship was worth 1.68 trillion euros in 2024, about 30 percent of global trade, per the European Parliament [9].

Sources cited

1. [1]
   Trump's Greenland threats spark outrage and defiance from EU, testing longtime NATO alliances — Associated Press via KRGV, 2026-01-20.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-3 and 10 (Jan. 2026: Trump pledges tariffs to advance US control of Greenland; 10% import tax from February on eight European countries that supported Denmark; von der Leyen: a 'mistake' that questions his trustworthiness); paragraphs 19-23 (EU weighs retaliatory tariffs and anti-coercion instrument; Macron warns of first-ever use); paragraphs 26-27 (Carney: 'a rupture rather than a transition'); paragraphs 33-34 (Trump does not answer a question on using force) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-grl-01
2. [2]
   'We need Greenland': Trump repeats threat to annex Danish territory — BBC News, 2026-01-05.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-3 (Jan. 5, 2026: Trump repeats that the US 'needs' Greenland; Nielsen calls US control a 'fantasy'; Frederiksen: no right to annex); paragraphs 8-12 (Katie Miller's 'SOON' map; Venezuela operation reignites fears of force; Trump had refused to rule out force); paragraph 16 (polls show overwhelming Greenlandic opposition to joining the US) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-grl-02
3. [3]
   Stock market cuts through to Trump on Greenland in a way allies' messages failed to resonate — Associated Press, 2026-01-22.

   supports · Paragraphs 2-10 (Davos, Jan. 21, 2026: Trump backs away from tariffs after markets' biggest losses since October; rules out military force; announces a 'framework' with Rutte; S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq each rise 1.2%); 'A concept of a deal' paragraphs 1-12 (details to be worked out; Fried: damage 'still repairable') · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-grl-03
4. [4]
   Trump strikes Greenland deal with Denmark after threatening annexation — CNN, 2026-09-18.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-14 (Sept. 18, 2026: Trump announces agreement giving the US 'permanent control' over Greenland's security; official text not released; Greenland remains Danish; Frederiksen says agreement recognizes sovereignty and self-determination; agreement needs parliamentary procedures); 'Non-NATO members barred' paragraphs 1-4 (permanent access, basing and overflight rights; Rubio: concerns 'permanently and completely' addressed) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-grl-04
5. [5]
   Greenland Deal: Trump Drops Threat to Annex Denmark Territory in Favor of Greater U.S. Military Role — Democracy Now!, 2026-09-29.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-3 and transcript (agreement expands US military access but Greenland is not US territory; 1951 treaty already gave wide latitude; about 160 US troops at one base, two more bases allowed; Rademacher: threats damaged trust; Trump-linked Greenland Energy brought drilling equipment without permission; unclear who pays) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-grl-05
6. [6]
   European views of Trump and the U.S. are especially negative — Pew Research Center, 2026-06-23.

   supports · 'How did we do this' (42,151 adults in 36 countries, Feb. 8 to May 13, 2026); 'Few Europeans have confidence in Trump' (majorities lack confidence in all 10 European nations; three-quarters or more in eight); 'Most disapprove' (median 85% disapprove of handling of Greenland and tariffs); 'The U.S. is no longer seen as reliable' (only Hungary and Poland majorities see the US as reliable; drops of 28 to 52 points elsewhere); US favorability 58% in Hungary, 19% in Sweden · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-grl-06
7. [7]
   Drei von vier Deutschen halten USA für keinen vertrauenswürdigen Partner (ARD-DeutschlandTrend) — WDR / infratest dimap, 2026-01-08.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-6 (ARD-DeutschlandTrend, Jan. 5-7, 2026, 1,323 voters: 76% say the US is not a trustworthy partner, 15% say it is, the lowest ever recorded; 83% dissatisfied with Trump; 70% say NATO partners cannot rely on US protection; 53% favor a joint European military alliance more independent of NATO) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-grl-07
8. [8]
   U.S. and EU spell out tariffs for autos, pharmaceuticals and more — CNBC, 2025-08-21.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-3 (late-July 2025 framework: 15% blanket tariff on EU exports; European leaders' concern the deal was unbalanced); 'Lumber, tech and regulation' paragraphs 6-12 (15% cap on Section 232 tariffs; EU to eliminate tariffs on US industrial goods; EU purchases described as 'intended and expected,' not guaranteed); 'Autos' paragraph 22 (conditional 15% auto tariff) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-grl-08
9. [9]
   EU-US tariffs: tensions, trade deal and what could change — European Parliament, 2025-02-13.

   context · Introduction and 'What is the EU-US trade and tariffs deal' (tariff threats in spring 2025; Turnberry political agreement July 2025, not legally binding); 'How important' (EU-US trade 1.68 trillion euros in 2024, 30% of global trade); 'Safeguards' (US kept 50% steel tariff; suspension mechanism; sunset at end of 2029; anti-coercion instrument as last resort) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-grl-09