SNAP rolls fell by 5.5 million people in a year, USDA data show, and the cost shift to states has only begun

People and organizations

Trump administration, United States Congress

Places

United States

Evidence label

Primary record — A court filing, ruling, agency document, executive order, inspector general report, official dataset or regulator order that we opened directly. More

Research records

HCR20261021-10, HCR20261021-11

What happened

The number of people receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits fell from 41,603,048 in July 2025 to 36,087,667 in July 2026, according to the monthly national table published by the Agriculture Department's Food and Nutrition Administration [1]. That is a drop of about 5.5 million people, or 13 percent, in twelve months [1][2]. The June 2026 figure was 36,521,606, so the earlier "about 5 million" decline through June has since grown [1].

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, which tracks the same federal data, estimates that roughly 2 million of the 5.5 million are children [2]. USDA's monthly table counts persons and households but does not break out children, so the children's share is an estimate by CBPP, not an agency figure [1][2].

Why it matters

The 2025 tax-and-spending law (Public Law 119-21) made the largest changes to SNAP in decades: broader work requirements, new restrictions on eligibility for some lawfully present immigrants, limits on future benefit adjustments, and a shift of costs to states [5]. The Congressional Budget Office projected that the expanded work requirements alone would reduce average monthly participation by about 2.4 million people over 2025-2034 relative to its baseline, and that the new citizenship and immigration-status limits would make about 90,000 more people ineligible in an average month [5]. The AP reported that by May 2026 the caseload was already about as low as CBO's February 2026 projection had forecast for 2030 [3].

The cost shift has two statutory start dates. The first took effect with fiscal 2027, which began October 1, 2026: Section 10106 of the law cuts the federal share of state administrative costs from 50 percent to 25 percent, leaving states to pay the other 75 percent, according to USDA's June 2026 proposed rule implementing the change [8][6]. Beginning October 1, 2027, states with payment error rates above 6 percent must pay between 5 and 15 percent of benefit costs themselves, and USDA says states may choose their fiscal 2025 or fiscal 2026 error rate for that first year [4][2].

The evidence

The participation figures are USDA's own, posted as "data as of October 9, 2026" and marked preliminary for the most recent months [1]. CBO's monthly budget review confirms the fiscal effect: Food and Nutrition Administration outlays fell $11 billion, or 8 percent, in fiscal 2026, largely because of lower SNAP caseloads [7]. CBPP's tracker, updated October 22, 2026, reports that participation has fallen in every state except Alaska, by 20 percent or more in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nevada and Oklahoma, and by nearly 51 percent in Arizona alone [2]. The AP, citing USDA data, likewise reported Arizona's 12-month drop at more than 50 percent, with declines above 20 percent in Georgia, Louisiana, Nevada and Florida [3].

The AP reported that advocates attribute much of the drop to administrative paperwork, while the Heritage Foundation's Rachel Sheffield said part of it is likely a natural decline from pandemic-era peaks and that people leaving because they are working would be a success [3]. A Florida food bank executive told the AP that part of that state's 22 percent decline is driven by lawfully present immigrants who fear being targeted by immigration enforcement if they seek benefits [3].

Response and counterpoints

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins described the drop as a positive, telling a Minnesota farm festival in August 2026 that "for those of us that love work and celebrate work and want people to work and not be on food stamps, it's a pretty big win when we move 5 million people off of food stamps" [6]. A USDA spokesperson told the Guardian by email that "the number of individuals receiving benefits is constantly changing and is not representative of any one policy," and did not respond to a question about people going hungry [6]. Florida's Department of Children and Families said in a statement to the AP that its falling caseload reflects the state's focus on advancing self-sufficiency [3]. The AP also noted that Congress has considered delaying the 2027 benefit cost-share [3].

What remains uncertain

USDA's figures for the most recent months are preliminary and are routinely revised [1]. The data do not say why individuals left SNAP, so the split between people who became ineligible, people who found work, and people who dropped off because of paperwork is not knowable from the agency table [1][3]. The 2 million children figure is CBPP's estimate, not a USDA count, and it amounts to roughly 36 percent of the decline, so earlier descriptions of the drop as "nearly half children" overstate CBPP's current figure [2]. The benefit cost-share will depend on each state's fiscal 2025 or 2026 error rate, so the number of states facing a match and the dollar amounts remain projections until USDA applies the formula [4]. USDA notes that the payment error rate measures over- and underpayments and is not a measure of fraud [6]. CBO's 2.4 million figure covers only the work-requirement provisions, is an average over ten years, and is not directly comparable to a single-year change in total participation [5].

Money and method

Entity: SNAP (federal benefit program administered by states). Measure: average monthly participation, persons, from USDA Food and Nutrition Administration national tables [1]. Period: July 2025 through July 2026, the latest month available [1]. Status: preliminary for recent months. Cost-shift dates and percentages are statutory provisions of Public Law 119-21 as described by USDA and CBO; the fiscal 2026 outlay change is a CBO estimate from Treasury data [4][5][7].

Sources cited

1. [1]
   SNAP Data Tables: National Level Monthly Data, latest available month July 2026 — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Administration, 2026-10-09.

   supports · National-level monthly table, 'Persons' column: FY2025 Jul 41,603,048; FY2026 Jun 36,521,606; FY2026 Jul 36,087,667; footer 'Data as of October 9, 2026' · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-snap-enrollment-decline-01
2. [2]
   SNAP Tracker: People Are Losing Food Assistance as the Republican Megabill's Cuts Take Effect — Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2026-10-22.

   supports · Opening paragraphs (5.5 million, 13 percent, roughly 2 million children, July 2025 to July 2026); 'Key takeaways' bullets; 'Harmful SNAP changes are poised to deepen' section (October 1, 2026 administrative cost shift; October 1, 2027 benefit cost shift; 2029-2030 fiscal impact) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-snap-enrollment-decline-02
3. [3]
   Enrollment in SNAP grocery aid is dropping faster than expected — Associated Press (via WBRZ), 2026-08-21.

   supports · Paragraphs 1-12 (13 percent 12-month decline; faster than CBO's February 2026 projection; Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, Nevada, Florida declines; paperwork; Heritage Foundation comment; 6 percent error-rate threshold and October 2027 start; 'Other factors' section) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-snap-enrollment-decline-03
4. [4]
   SNAP Quality Control — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Administration, 2026-10-02.

   supports · FAQ 'What is the new SNAP matching funds requirement?' (0 to 15 percent match, generally begins Oct. 1, 2027; FY2025 or FY2026 error rate for first year) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-snap-enrollment-decline-04
5. [5]
   Estimated Effects of Public Law 119-21 on Participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (supplemental information) — Congressional Budget Office, 2025-08-13.

   supports · 'Work Requirements' section (Section 10102: roughly 2.4 million fewer participants in an average month, 2025-2034); Section 10105 paragraph (6 percent error-rate threshold, $41 billion 2028-2034); Section 10108 paragraph (about 90,000 people ineligible in an average month) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-snap-enrollment-decline-05
6. [6]
   Trump administration has pushed off 13% of SNAP recipients in a year, analysis finds — The Guardian (republished by Yahoo News), 2026-10-22.

   supports · Paragraphs quoting Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins (August 2026 Minnesota farm festival) and the USDA spokesperson's email statement; paragraph noting states now pay most administrative costs and the October 2027 benefit cost-share (Guardian report republished by Yahoo News) · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-snap-enrollment-decline-06
7. [7]
   Monthly Budget Review: September 2026 — Congressional Budget Office, 2026-10-08.

   context · 'Total Outlays' section: Food and Nutrition Administration outlays down $11 billion (8 percent), largely because of lower SNAP caseloads · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-snap-enrollment-decline-07
8. [8]
   Proposed Rule: SNAP Changes in Federal-State Administrative Cost Sharing — U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Nutrition Administration, 2026-06-24.

   supports · Summary paragraph: Section 10106 reduces federal share of state administrative costs from 50 percent to 25 percent beginning in fiscal year 2027 · checked 2026-10-26 · source N-snap-enrollment-decline-08