More than 21 million Gen Z voters stayed home in 2024, and only 33 percent of 18-to-29-year-olds say they will definitely vote this fall
The 30-second version
The Harvard Youth Poll released October 22, 2026 reports that "one-third of young Americans (33%) say they plan to definitely vote in November, compared with 40% who said the same in 2018 and 2022"; among young men the figure fell from 42 percent in 2022 to 31 percent, and among young women from 37 to 35 percent [1].
CIRCLE's survey of 5,549 people ages 18 to 29, published April 23, 2026, counts almost 50 million Gen Z Americans eligible to vote this year and more than 21 million who did not cast ballots in 2024 out of more than 40 million who were eligible [2].
Numbers in brackets are the sources, listed at the end.
CIRCLE counts more than 21 million Gen Z non-voters in 2024 and almost 50 million eligible in 2026; Harvard's fall 2026 poll finds 33 percent definitely voting, down from 40 percent before the 2018 and 2022 midterms.
About this story Estimate · October 22, 2026 · rev. 1
- People and organizations
- CIRCLE at Tufts University, Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics
- Places
- United States
- Evidence label
- Estimate — A valuation, projection or model from a named party (for example Forbes, CBO, a committee staff) with its method and date. Partisan estimates are identified as such. More
What happened
The Harvard Youth Poll released October 22, 2026 reports that "one-third of young Americans (33%) say they plan to definitely vote in November, compared with 40% who said the same in 2018 and 2022"; among young men the figure fell from 42 percent in 2022 to 31 percent, and among young women from 37 to 35 percent [1].
CIRCLE's survey of 5,549 people ages 18 to 29, published April 23, 2026, counts almost 50 million Gen Z Americans eligible to vote this year and more than 21 million who did not cast ballots in 2024 out of more than 40 million who were eligible [2].
Why it matters
The gap between eligible and voting young people is larger than the margin of most statewide races. CIRCLE found 28 percent of young people struggle to connect their top issues to candidates and 20 percent to connect them to choices on the ballot, which is an information problem a voter guide can address, not a motivation problem [2].
Among young people who say they definitely will not vote, Harvard found only 8 percent believe voting and participating can make a great deal or a fair amount of difference on the issues that matter to them [1].
The evidence
Harvard interviewed 2,024 Americans ages 18 to 29 between September 30 and October 7, 2026, in English and Spanish [1]. CIRCLE's poll was fielded January 26 to February 12, 2026 and found cost of living and inflation the top issue for 65 percent, ahead of health care and housing costs [2].
Response and counterpoints
Stated intention to vote is not turnout; some who say "probably" vote and some who say "definitely" do not, and both polls were taken weeks or months before Election Day [1]. CIRCLE's 21 million figure is a count of eligible non-voters and does not by itself say why they stayed home; the same organization's separate 2024 post-election research addresses reasons [2].
What remains uncertain
Actual 2026 youth turnout will not be known until CIRCLE and the Census Bureau publish post-election estimates in 2027. Whether the drop among young men in stated intention translates into a turnout drop is the open question of this cycle [1].
Sources cited
- [1]
Harvard Youth Poll, 53rd Edition, Fall 2026 — Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, 2026-10-22.supports · Voting section: 'One-third of young Americans (33%) say they plan to definitely vote in November, compared with 40% who said the same in 2018 and 2022'; young men 31 percent versus 42 percent in 2022, young women 35 percent versus 37 percent; among those who will definitely not vote, 8 percent believe participation makes a great deal or fair amount of difference; methodology (2,024 adults 18-29, September 30 to October 7, 2026) · checked 2026-10-28 · source N-youth-turnout-01
- [2]
The 50 Million: Gen Z's Power, Priorities, and Participation — CIRCLE, Tufts University, with When We All Vote, 2026-04-23.supports · Key findings: almost 50 million Gen Z eligible in 2026; more than 21 million Gen Zers did not cast ballots in 2024 out of over 40 million eligible; cost of living and inflation top issue for 65 percent; 28 percent struggle to connect top issues to candidates and 20 percent to ballot choices; 5,549 respondents ages 18-29, fielded January 26 to February 12, 2026; published April 23, 2026 · checked 2026-10-28 · source N-youth-turnout-02