What it costs
What the last year costs at the kitchen table.
Eight numbers from the last year that land on a kitchen table, each one pulled from a sourced story on this site. No adjectives were added. Where I did arithmetic on a sourced figure, I say so and show it.
Figures checked 2026-10-26. Each number links to the story it comes from, which lists every source and what remains uncertain.
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$4.48a gallon of regular gas, May 5, 2026
Gas was under $3 a gallon at the start of 2026. Ten weeks into the Iran war it reached $4.48, and 2026 passed the previous record for days at $4 or more.
Arithmetic, mine: a 15-gallon fill-up went from about $45 to about $67.
Source: AAA national averages, reported by the AP and CNN. Read the sourced story: The largest oil supply disruption in history: what the Iran war did to the price of gas, diesel and everything shipped.
What remains uncertain
Some of the increase came from refinery damage, low inventories and China holding back fuel exports, not Hormuz alone.
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$6.50a gallon of diesel, Oct. 20, 2026
Diesel was about 70 percent above its February price. Diesel is 70 percent of the fuel used in freight, construction and farming, so it is priced into groceries, building materials and every delivered package.
Any item that arrives on a truck carries part of this.
Source: J.P. Morgan, October 2026 analysis. Read the sourced story: The largest oil supply disruption in history: what the Iran war did to the price of gas, diesel and everything shipped.
What remains uncertain
J.P. Morgan's $10 diesel figure elsewhere in the same analysis is a scenario, not a forecast.
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$1,000+a year more for the same marketplace health plan
The enhanced premium tax credits expired on December 31, 2025. KFF found that keeping the same marketplace plan in 2026 would have cost 114 percent more, over $1,000 a year. Many people switched to cheaper plans; actual payments still rose 58 percent on average and deductibles 37 percent.
Insurers raised their own charges 26 percent on average on top of the credit expiration.
Source: KFF analysis of 2026 rate filings and enrollment data. Read the sourced story: Coverage losses and premium increases: what CBO projected, what KFF has observed, and where the '12 million' comes from.
What remains uncertain
The 26 percent is the average insurer charge, not what most enrollees pay; the 114 percent is a same-plan comparison.
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2.6 millionfewer people paying for marketplace coverage in 2026
Effectuated marketplace enrollment fell from 21.8 million to 19.2 million between 2025 and 2026. The Congressional Budget Office projects the 2025 tax-and-spending law will leave 10 million more people uninsured by 2034, 7.5 million of them through Medicaid changes.
The CBO figure is a projection to 2034 and CBO labels it as subject to considerable uncertainty.
Source: KFF compilation of federal enrollment data; CBO estimate for Public Law 119-21. Read the sourced story: Coverage losses and premium increases: what CBO projected, what KFF has observed, and where the '12 million' comes from.
What remains uncertain
The 2026 decline cannot yet be attributed to the law alone; credit expiration, verification rules and insurer exits happened in the same period.
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5.5 millionfewer people getting food assistance in one year
SNAP participation fell from 41.6 million in July 2025 to 36.1 million in July 2026, a 13 percent drop. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities estimates about 2 million of those are children.
Participation fell in every state except Alaska; by 20 percent or more in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nevada and Oklahoma.
Source: USDA monthly participation table (data as of Oct. 9, 2026); CBPP tracker. Read the sourced story: SNAP rolls fell by 5.5 million people in a year, USDA data show, and the cost shift to states has only begun.
What remains uncertain
USDA's table does not say why people left, so the split between ineligibility, finding work and paperwork is not knowable from it. The children figure is CBPP's estimate.
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$1.99 trillionfederal deficit, fiscal year 2026
Treasury's year-end statement shows a $1,992 billion deficit, $217 billion more than fiscal 2025. Net interest on the debt rose $115 billion, or 11 percent, in one year. CBO estimates the 2025 tax law adds $4.1 trillion to deficits over ten years once interest is counted.
Debt service is now the third-largest line in the federal budget, behind only Social Security and Medicare plus Medicaid combined.
Source: Treasury Monthly Treasury Statement; CBO Monthly Budget Review; Reuters. Read the sourced story: The 2026 deficit: $1.99 trillion in Treasury's year-end books, and what CBO says the 2025 tax law adds.
What remains uncertain
The ten-year figures are estimates against a January 2025 baseline and exclude macroeconomic feedback; how much of the 2026 increase is the law versus interest rates or tariffs cannot be read from the totals.
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$45.1 billionreported cost of the Iran war through Sept. 3, 2026
The Pentagon's figure reported to Congress, with an $87.6 billion supplemental requested on top. Twenty-one US service members have died. Congress has held zero votes authorizing the war and four directing it to end.
The Strategic Petroleum Reserve, drawn down to fight prices, stood at about 283 million barrels on October 2, a 40-plus-year low.
Source: Pentagon figure reported to Congress; CENTCOM; Congressional Research Service; J.P. Morgan (reserve level). Read the sourced story: What the Iran war has cost so far, and what the Pentagon is asking for next: $45 billion, $87 billion, $1.5 trillion.
What remains uncertain
Cost tallies differ by cutoff date and by what is counted; a separate CENTCOM-based figure in another story on this site is $43.6 billion.
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$750in federal income tax the president paid in each of 2016 and 2017
According to returns released by Congress. In 2025 he disclosed $1.4 billion in pre-tax crypto income, and Forbes estimates his net worth at $7 billion.
A reader can set those three numbers next to the ones above and draw their own conclusion.
Source: Tax returns released by the House Ways and Means Committee; 2025 federal financial disclosure; Forbes. Read the sourced story: Trump's $10 billion IRS lawsuit, the audit-immunity deal, and the judge who called it a sham.
What remains uncertain
The $1.4 billion is reported income before taxes and expenses; the Forbes figure is an estimate that moved between $7 billion and $6.6 billion within weeks.